That is, in 2019, China's GDP has reached 66.36% of that of the United States. If China's annual GDP growth rate can be maintained higher than that of the United States in the future, it is possible for China to surpass the United States in 2030 and become the world's number one. From another perspective, whether China can continue to maintain high economic growth is also the key for China to escape the middle-income trap. The so-called middle-income trap refers to the plight of developing countries that, after their economic development reaches the level of middle-income countries,
they remain at this level and cannot further jump popular database to high-income countries. For example, South Africa and Brazil have such problems. According to the latest grouping criteria for high-, middle- and low-income countries released by the World Bank, the per capita GNI (Gross National Income, which is usually not far from a country’s GDP) is higher than US$12,696 and is considered a high-income country. $1,045 is a low-income country, and those between $1,046 and $12,695 are
middle-income countries . Since 2019, China's per capita GNI has exceeded US$10,000 for two consecutive years , gradually approaching the upper limit of middle-income countries. If China's economic development goes smoothly in the next 10 years, China will successfully become a high-income country. But on the other hand, if China's economic development is stagnant and the per capita GNI hovers between US$12,000 and US$13,000 in the next 10 years, then China will really fall into the middle-income trap.